Thoughts on this award season (acting categories)

So, let's start with my two favorite categories, Best Actor and Actress.

Best Actor: I really want Jeff Bridges to win, I really do, but I'm less and less certain that it would happen and I really hope that I'm wrong. I think this looks so much like last year with Bridges as Rourke and Clooney as Penn. Clooney received at least ten critics' awards and rave reviews, he's a very popular and beloved actor in the Academy and if Up in the Air wins Best Picture it has to win at least two or three other awards. The screenplay award is locked IMO and it might lose Director to Kathryn Bigelow and the supporting ladies cannot win with Mo'Nique as a lock. So the only option is Clooney.
So my prediction: George Clooney in Up in the Air

Best Actress: Although Carey Mulligan seemed to be a far-out front-runner before the award season began and she won the first two critics's awards. But a very popular overdue actress suddenly turned up and won some awards ( e.g. NYFC), that seemed to be in the bag of Mulligan. Yes, she's the brilliant Meryl Streep, who might just receive her long awaited third Oscar. And she will IMO. She's overdue and there are two other factors in her favor: the only thing the Academy loves more than Meryl is BIOPICS. Haven't you noticed? Since 1998, there's always been a biopic winner (just check it if you don't believe me) and the Academy fall for much weaker performances than Meryl's superb turn in Julie and Julia. So it might be Mulligan after all, but I doubt it, because this "young Oscar princess" worked in the 1960s, but the world has changed a lot and unless you're Gwyneth Paltrow and your father pays for your Oscar, you can't expect to win under 30.
So my prediction: Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia

Best Supporting Actor: I don't think I should waste much time to this category, because unless Woody Harrelson gets stronger or the sentimentality makes them vote for Christopher Plummer, this is Waltz's to lose. He won all the awards (too much IMO) and I think the Oscar won't be a problem to him either. I really don't understand the fascination with his performance, it was very good, but I guess I have to rewatch the movie (I've just received a DVD).
So my prediction: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress: This category is not very exciting either. It's Mo'Nique and it's alright. When was the last time that a sweeper performance was THIS worthy? She's excellent and gives the best supporting performance of the decade. I don't think that ANYONE can beat her, especially not Anna Kendrick. And not campaigning like Mo'Nique does can be a good campaign too.
So my prediction: Mo'Nique in Precious

About Best Picture and Director: I decide it later, because I haven't seen many of the movies.
What do you think?