Final Oscar Predictions

The votes have been procured, and I see 12 nods for Lincoln.

On Thursday, January 10, the Academy Award nominees will be announced by Emma Stone and Oscar host Seth MacFarlane, marking the first time a host will announce the nominations. (Thanks to AwardsDaily for the heads up!)

Sticking to nominee predictions only, I've gone out on a limb or two, but this Oscar race is unlike any I've ever witnessed. This is a year in which Skyfall could get a Best Picture nomination and Matthew McConaughey could get a Best Supporting Actor nod. Who could've predicted that? Of course, they might not get in. Still, this has been an exciting Oscar season, and I can't wait to see what surprises the Academy hit us with on Thursday.

Note: These predictions are my entry into Film Actually's Oscar Prediction Contest. Good luck, fellow prognosticators!

Best Picture:
--Argo
--Django Unchained
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Les Misérables
--Silver Linings Playbook
--Zero Dark Thirty

I'm predicting eight nominees, but I'm really close to predicting a full lineup. Though, The Master or Django Unchained could lose out to Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall, or even Amour.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo
--Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
--Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
--David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
--Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

I'm guessing Russell gets the fifth spot, but Ang Lee, Michael Haneke, and Quentin Tarantino are still in the race.

Best Actor:
--Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

I've been thinking that Washington is out for a while, and I'm sticking with that prediction. Otherwise, Phoenix (if nominated) might get in over Hawkes, or possibly Cooper.

Best Actress:
--Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

This lineup probably won't happen. It's too safe, as someone like Emmanuelle Riva, Rachel Weisz, or Helen Mirren could sneak in.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Javier Bardem, Skyfall
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
--Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

I'm guessing De Niro will miss here, and Bardem/DiCaprio will get in. Or maybe McConaughey or Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Sally Field, Lincoln
--Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Apart from Kidman and possibly Adams, this also feels too safe. Expect a surprise here (maybe). Maggie Smith or Judi Dench, perhaps?

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Argo
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Lincoln
--The Perks of Being a Wallflower
--Silver Linings Playbook

Perks isn't a sure thing, as Life of Pi or The Sessions could get in instead.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--Django Unchained
--The Master
--Moonrise Kingdom
--Zero Dark Thirty

This appears to be a solid category, but a surprise like The Intouchables or Arbitrage could happen.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Cloud Atlas
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Les Misérables

Cloud Atlas and The Master are vulnerable, and could lose out to Django Unchained, Skyfall, Argo, or Moonrise Kingdom.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty

The Master and Django Unchained are also possible. If the Academy love it, even Les Misérables could get in.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Django Unchained
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables
--A Royal Affair

Mirror Mirror and Snow White and the Huntsman also have a shot.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty

Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, and Django Unchained are lurking just outside.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina
--Argo
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln

Cloud Atlas and The Master are wishful thinking, but this looks like the final lineup.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Misérables
--"Who Did That to You?", Django Unchained

Who knows? Maybe only one or two of these get nominated.

 Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables

Hitchcock or Men in Black 3 could also happen.

 Best Sound Mixing:
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Misérables
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty

The Dark Knight Rises could be snubbed entirely. Lincoln, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Prometheus, or The Avengers could replace it.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty

Les Misérables, Prometheus, and The Avengers are also contenders.

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi
--Prometheus

The Dark Knight Rises or even Skyfall could get in over Cloud Atlas.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave
--Frankenweenie
--The Painting
--ParaNorman
--Wreck-It Ralph

Rise of the Guardians could get in after all, but the animation branch likes to surprise.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--The Gatekeepers
--How We Survived a Plague
--The Imposter
--Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
--Searching for Sugar Man

The Invisible War has a chance, but you never know what will be nominated here.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)
--The Intouchables (France)
--No (Chile)
--A Royal Affair (Denmark)
--War Witch (Canada)

This category is never a sure thing. Norway's Kon-Tiki or Switzerland's Sister could also sneak in.

December Oscar Predictions

I'm not sure what's going to happen during Oscar season this year. Who wins Best Picture? Les Miserables, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo all have a shot. At the moment, it's next to impossible to correctly predict all of the nominees, let alone the winners. But I'll give it a shot. 

Predicted winners indicated with an asterisk (*).

Best Picture:
--Amour
--Argo
--Les Miserables*
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Silver Linings Playbook
--Zero Dark Thirty

So, I'm calling it for Les Mis...for now. I think the ZDT love will fade, but Argo and Lincoln could still end up winning. Also, I think The Master still has a shot at a nomination if it gets enough #1 votes. I predicted The Tree of Life would get a Best Picture nod last year, so I'm sticking with this prediction.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo
--Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
--Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
--Tom Hooper, Les Miserables*
--Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Hooper could win this, but so could Bigelow, Affleck, or Spielberg. Also, I think the directors could still throw PTA in the mix, like they did Malick last year.

Best Actor:
--Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

It looks like DDL is going to take this after all. Still see Denzel Washington getting snubbed for Cooper's or Jackman's nod.

Best Actress:
--Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty*
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
--Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Chastain vs. Lawrence. Chastain has picked up momentum, but Lawrence could come back around. Naomi Watts might have to sit this one out.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
--Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained*
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
--Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Until more awards are given out, I see DiCaprio winning this. If my lineup happens, he'd be up against four winners, so that could work in his favor. Meanwhile, Alan Arkin could miss here.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
--Sally Field, Lincoln
--Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Hathaway should take this rather easily. The other nominees appear to be solidifying.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Argo
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Lincoln* 
--The Sessions
--Silver Linings Playbook

Lincoln is out in front. Expect competition from Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--Arbitrage
--The Master
--Moonrise Kingdom
--Zero Dark Thirty*

Mark Boal could win his third Oscar here. And it looks as if PTA's film will walk away empty-handed.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Cloud Atlas
--Les Miserables
--Lincoln
--The Master

Anna Karenina will probably take this. Les Mis and Lincoln are just behind it.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Skyfall*

Love for Deakins' work in this moneymaker (and critic favorite) could propel him to the win. Anna Karenina and Life of Pi have a shot, and Les Mis or ZDT could sneak in.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Mirror Mirror
--A Royal Affair

Anna Karenina wins. If they love Les Mis, it could win instead.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo*
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--Zero Dark Thirty

If AMPAS gives Argo something, it might be rewarded here. ZDT and Les Mis could also happen.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina*
--Argo
--Cloud Atlas
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln

Anna Karenina is perfect for Academy voters. I really don't see any of the other scores winning.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Miserables*
--"Who Were We?", Holy Motors

Les Mis is the likely winner. Who knows? Only one or two of these could be nominated. Holy Motors could get a surprise nod here, like Paris 36 and The Chorus did.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Lincoln*

Lincoln all the way. Hitchcock or even Holy Motors could still show up here though.

Best Sound Mixing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables* 
--Skyfall

Les Mis could win this, even if it loses Best Picture. Skyfall is probably the only other option.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Skyfall*

Skyfall might take this, but it's hard to tell. Maybe The Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises could win.

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi*
--Prometheus

Life of Pi gets its reward here, and deservedly so.
 
Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave*
--Frankenweenie
--The Painting
--ParaNorman
--Wreck-It Ralph

Brave is the safe bet, but I wonder about Frankenweenie's and Wreck-It Ralph's chances.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--The Gatekeepers
--The House I Live In*
--How to Survive a Plague
--The Invisible War
--Searching for Sugar Man

I've no idea. Perhaps The Gatekeepers wins instead. I don't see Sugar Man or The Invisible War winning though.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)
--The Intouchables (France)*
--Lore (Australia)
--No (Chile)
--A Royal Affair (Denmark)

Still see Amour losing, even if it gets a Best Picture nod. You never know with the Academy.

Winner Predictions Tally:
Anna Karenina - 3
Argo - 1
Brave - 1
Django Unchained - 1
The House I Live In - 1
The Intouchables - 1
Les Miserables - 5 (including Best Picture)
Life of Pi - 1
Lincoln - 3
Skyfall - 2
Zero Dark Thirty - 2

November Oscar Predictions

Affleck's film could go home with 4 wins.

Since my last update, Lincoln is officially a contender, and The Master could very well miss in Best Picture and Best Director. Also, Les Miserables could be the film to beat, even with Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi gaining momentum. Of course, Argo is still out in front, while films like Zero Dark Thirty, The Impossible, and Django Unchained could also feature in the Oscar race. Meanwhile, early guesses such as Promised Land, Seven Psychopaths, and Quartet are probably not going to be nominated. 

Potential winners indicated with an asterisk. (*)

Best Picture:
--Amour
--Argo*
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Silver Linings Playbook

Argo appears to be in the lead, but Lincoln and Les Miserables are still in contention. Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook appear locked, and Amour and The Master might make the cut.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo*
--Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
--Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
--Ang Lee, Life of Pi
--Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Though Affleck is still ahead, Spielberg and Hooper are just behind, with Lee and (potentially) Anderson bringing up the rear.

Best Actor:
--Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master*

Day-Lewis probably isn't winning a third Best Actor Oscar, so Phoenix's chances remain good. However, Hawkes or Jackman could also win, and Cooper might get in over Denzel Washington in Flight.

Best Actress:
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
--Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Lawrence and Wallis feel like the only locks. Next is Watts, but Riva and Cotillard could be replaced.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained*
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
--Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Right now, DiCaprio is the likely winner. Any of the other veterans could win, or be overlooked for Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Sally Field, Lincoln
--Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Hathaway is still the frontrunner, with Field and Hunt being her biggest competition. Adams doesn't look like a winner, and Smith isn't a sure thing.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Lincoln
--The Sessions
--Silver Linings Playbook

Argo probably takes this easily, but Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln are still in the hunt. The Sessions and Beasts of the Southern Wild aren't likely to win.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--Arbitrage
--The Intouchables
--The Master*
--Moonrise Kingdom

The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, and Amour are favorites. Look for wild cards like The Intouchables and Arbitrage.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Cloud Atlas
--Les Miserables
--Lincoln*
--The Master

Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, or Lincoln could win. Unfortunately, it appears that Cloud Atlas and The Master have almost no shot.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--Life of Pi*
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Skyfall

Life of Pi looks like a typical Oscar winner, but Roger Deakins could get some votes for his deserving work in Skyfall. If votes are split, any of the other three could win though.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Mirror Mirror
--A Royal Affair

This is probably the one lock for Anna Karenina. Les Miserables or A Royal Affair could surprise, but it's really a crapshoot at this point.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo*
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Zero Dark Thirty

If Argo is winning Best Picture, this is a lock. While Life of Pi is a threat, momentum could carry Lincoln to a win. The Master and Zero Dark Thirty might not even be nominated.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina*
--Argo
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master

Anna Karenina and Lincoln are the frontrunners. Life of Pi has a shot, but Argo and The Master could get snubbed.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Miserables*
--"Touch the Sky", Brave

These haven't changed from my September predictions. At best, probably three of these songs get in, with Les Miserables or Skyfall winning.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--Hitchcock
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Lincoln*

Hitchcock could steal this, but Lincoln is a safe bet.

Best Sound Mixing:
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall*

Though Les Miserables could take this, Skyfall is a critical and financial success. Life of Pi isn't a likely winner, but it's probably a lock for a nod.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall*

Again, Skyfall is the likely winner. Life of Pi and The Dark Knight Rises have a decent chance too.

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi*
--Prometheus

Life of Pi has this in the bag…probably. It's prestigious, and looks great from the trailer. Cloud Atlas and Prometheus are the likely runners-up.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave*
--Frankenweenie
--ParaNorman
--Rise of the Guardians
--Wreck-It Ralph

Brave wins, but Wreck-It Ralph has a shot. A surprise nod or two could occur here as well.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--Bully
--The Invisible War*
--Marley
--The Queen of Versailles
--This is Not a Film

The Invisible War seems like the winner, yet it could be snubbed. It's possible that only one or two of these get nominated.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)
--The Intouchables (France)*
--Lore (Australia)
--No (Chile)
--Our Children (Belgium)

Amour might get in for Best Picture, but The Intouchables could upset here. There's usually some surprises in this category.

Winner Predictions Tally:
Anna Karenina - 2
Argo - 4 (including Best Picture)
Brave - 1
Django Unchained - 1
The Intouchables - 1
The Invisible War - 1
Les Miserables - 2
Life of Pi - 2
Lincoln - 2
The Master - 2
Silver Linings Playbook - 1
Skyfall - 2

September Oscar Predictions

With awards season starting soon, I've updated my Oscar predictions. I might not do another update for awhile, as predictions can change drastically on a weekly basis starting in November.

Predictions with brief commentary after the cut. Potential winners indicated with an asterisk (*).

Best Picture:
--Amour
--Anna Karenina
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--The Master
--Promised Land
--The Silver Linings Playbook

Argo, The Master, The Silver Linings Playbook, and probably Beasts of the Southern Wild are virtual locks. Les Miserables and Life of Pi are likely as well. Amour, Anna Karenina, and Promised Land are up in the air, but could very well get in. Meanwhile, I think The Dark Knight Rises has a solid chance of coming back around with a late DVD release. Lincoln looks out, but that could change.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo*
--Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
--Michael Haneke, Amour
--Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
--Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Affleck and Anderson seem to be locks. The others could easily be replaced, but Haneke has a decent chance.

Best Actor:
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master*
--Denzel Washington, Flight

Day-Lewis, Hawkes, and Phoenix are probably locked. Though Jackman and Washington are likely, there's always a chance that someone else could surprise.

Best Actress:
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
--Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook*
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Locks appear to be Lawrence and Wallis. Cotillard and Watts are close behind, with Knightley just making the cut.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master*
--Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

Hoffman is the only lock. Crowe and DiCaprio are likely, but Arkin and McGregor could be replaced.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Pauline Collins, Quartet
--Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Adams and Hathaway are pretty much locks. The rest might look completely different in January.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Anna Karenina
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--The Sessions
--The Silver Linings Playbook

At this point, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and The Silver Linings Playbook are in. The Sessions is also probable, but the last spot could also be Lincoln, Life of Pi, or something else entirely.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--The Master*
--Moonrise Kingdom
--Promised Land
--Seven Psychopaths

Amour, The Master, and Moonrise Kingdom are locked right now. The last two spots could see Django Unchained and something else get in.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Argo
--Django Unchained
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Les Miserables

Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables are likely. The rest is anybody's game.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi*
--The Master

Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and The Master are probably in. The others aren't assured a nomination.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--The Master
--Mirror Mirror

All five of these seem locked, but Django Unchained and Mirror Mirror could lose out to other films.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo*
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--The Master

Argo, Life of Pi, and The Master are likely. The other two may or may not get in.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina*
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Moonrise Kingdom

All except Moonrise Kingdom are strong possibilities, but you never know with this category.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Miserables*
--"Touch the Sky", Brave

The only locks would likely be a song from Brave and "Suddenly" form Les Miserables. When it comes to this category, nobody knows anything.

 Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Les Miserables
--Lincoln*

While Les Miserables appears to be the only shaky choice, a surprise snub often occurs here.

 Best Sound Mixing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables*
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall

Except for Skyfall, these picks will probably be nominated. Django Unchained, Prometheus, Zero Dark Thirty, or Looper could also be in the running.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises*
--Life of Pi
--Prometheus
--Skyfall

The Avenger, The Dark Knight Rises, and Life of Pi seem to be locks. Who knows about the rest?

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Dark Knight Rises
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi*

These are very likely, but something like Prometheus could replace The Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave*
--Frankenweenie
--ParaNorman
--Rise of the Guardians
--Wreck-It Ralph

These are too good to be true, in terms of Oscar prognostication. Expect at least one surprise here.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--Bully
--The Invisible War*
--Marley
--The Queen of Versailles
--This is Not a Film

Not sure on these. Though, Bully, The Invisible War, and Marley (eligible?) have a great chance.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)*
--Barbara (Germany)
--The Intouchables (France)
--Lore (Australia)
--Our Children (Belgium)

With Rust and Bone not eligible, the lineup will look something like this. Amour, The Intouchables, and Lore have the best shot at being nominated.

So, right now my tally of winner predictions is: (Hope they're not this boring.)

Amour - 1
Anna Karenina - 3
Argo - 4 (including Best Picture)
Brave - 1
The Dark Knight Rises - 1
The Invisible War - 1
Les Miserables - 3
Life of Pi - 2
Lincoln - 1
The Master - 3
The Silver Linings Playbook - 1