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The 81st Oscar Predictions, Part III

Sunday, February 22, 2009


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-Eric 
  • , Robin Swicord
  • Doubt-John Patrick Shanley
  • Frost/Nixon-Peter Morgan
  • The Reader-David Hare
  • Slumdog Millionaire-Simon Beaufoy
Who will win:
Slumdog Millionaire. Simon Beaufoy's adaptation of "Q & A", a collection of short essays, captures the spirit of the stories, yet takes his own spin on it, even furthering the material.

Who should win:
John Patrick Shanley's adaptation of his stage play, Doubt, plays like a great mystery and is unsettling and doesn't wrap up in a pretty package. Every line Shanley gives is another clue into what is truly going on and plays off of responses, allegations and assumptions beautifully.

Who should have been nominated:
The way that The Dark Knight  was adapted is easily perfection. The film takes classic characters and famous setting and unravels it, puts it back together, and makes it even better. The same could also be said of Clark Gregg's adaptation of the Chuck Palahniuk novel Choke, in which Gregg takes what works, adds what needs to be, and throws away the useless parts to make the film superior to the book in many ways.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
  • Frozen River-Courtney Hunt
  • Happy-Go-Lucky-Mike Leigh
  • In Bruges-Martin McDonagh
  • Milk-Dustin Lance Black
  • WALL-E-Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
Who will win:
The Oscar's love a first time success story in this category (i.e.: Diablo Cody for Juno, Michael Arndt for Little Miss Sunshine), so Black's first feature Milk will probably be this year's success story, and deservedly so.

Who should win:
While all of these films do deserve to win this category for its' own reasons, I will probably have to go with In Bruges. McDonagh's script featured some of the greatest dialogue in a film this year and made a funny, touching and politically incorrect film. I also must say, WALL-E's dialogue-less first 40 minutes also deserves some recognition.

Who should have been nominated:
I am a huge fan of writer Charlie Kaufman, I was not a huge fan of his 2008 film, Synecdoche, New York. I found it over-bloated and I felt like it overstayed its welcome. But what Kaufman tries here is so daring, that it should at least be recognized for its' absurdity. And while it is unfortunate that this man might never stand on the Oscar stage, Zack and Miri Make A Porno showed that Kevin Smith still had it and that he is one of the most talented writers in the business and that cursing and dirty words can also be touching.

Best Achievement in Directing:
  • Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
  • Stephen Daldry for The Reader
  • David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
  • Gus Van Sant for Milk
Who will win:
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire. Boyle shows that over his over two decade long career he has grown exponentially as a director, making Slumdog one of his best accomplishments.

Who should win:
But if anyone has shown growth as a director it is Gus Van Sant for Milk. For years, Sant has been experimenting with different styles and looks and his experimenting pulls together to make one of the greatest works of directing this year.

Who should have been nominated:
Darren Aronofsky's grainy look at "The Ram" make the audience feel like part of his life in The Wrestler and was without a doubt better than the work of Daldry and Howard this year. Also, the opening scene alone from The Dark Knight and the gigantic shots of Gotham show that Christopher Nolan deserves a nomination.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
  • Amy Adams for Doubt
  • Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona
  • Viola Davis for Doubt
  • Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler
Who will win and should win:
All of these performances are great, but it seems like it'll be a showdown between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis, while I tend to lean towards Cruz. Her performance in Vicky Christina Barcelona was ridiculously good, showing naysayers that she can act. And Viola Davis' short but game-changing performance in Doubt made for a heart-wrenching turn around.

Who should have been nominated:
Rosemarie DeWitt as the Rachel in Rachel Getting Married truly gave a performance that put Anne Hathaway's to shame. The reserved Rachel plays in cool, barely showing her annoyance with her sister, until she just can't take it anymore. Her performance propels this film into a film that is worth watching.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
  • Josh Brolin for Milk
  • Robert Downey for Tropic Thunder
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
  • Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
  • Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road
Who will win and should win:
In any other year, any one of these actors would have had an incredible chance, but Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight was a truly transcendent performance that deserves to be remembered as one of the greatest cinematic villains of all time.

Who should have been nominated:
The Academy pretty much got it right this time, but a few that should have been recognized: Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson for In Bruges, James Franco for Pineapple Express, Brad Pitt for Burn After Reading, Emile Hirsch for Milk and while Sam Rockwell had a career-making year with performances in Frost/Nixon and Choke, his performance in Snow Angels is arguably the biggest oversight here.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
  • Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
  • Angelina Jolie for Changeling
  • Melissa Leo for Frozen River
  • Meryl Streep for Doubt
  • Kate Winslet for The Reader
Who will win:
After being nominated multiple times, Kate Winslet should finally take her award home for The Reader. Unfortunately, it probably isn't the film she should have won this award for.

Who should win:
Arguably the least known performance here is also the best with Melissa Leo in Frozen River. From the minute she appears on screen, she exudes a presence that makes the viewer want to know more about her. Her powerful performance who struggles to gives her kids everything they deserve is one of the most fantastic and understated performances of the year.

Who should have been nominated:
Sally Hawkins gave a performance that could have easily been one of the most annoying performances of the year in Happy-Go-Lucky, but instead gave one of the most endearing and charming performances to ever grace the screen and her not being nominated is one of the biggest snubs this year in a category she truly should have won for.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
  • Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
  • Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
  • Sean Penn for Milk
  • Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Who will win:
Sean Penn in Milk gave arguably the best performance of his career and easily the second best performance of the year. But as Harvey Milk, Penn really shines and he deserves the award if he does receive it but...

Who should win:
...the best performance of the year by far is from Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. His comeback performance throws so much emotion and heartbreak into the ring, that it is ridiculous to not reward Rourke for going from hell and back for this performance.

Who should have been nominated:
Of course, so much of a fuss has been made over this snub, but Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino is an embarrassing one. Eastwood made this film watchable and the fact that this is apparently going to be his last film, makes it even more disappointing that he was not nominated.

And finally, the big one...

Best Motion Picture of the Year
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Frost/Nixon
  • Milk
  • The Reader
  • Slumdog Millionaire
Who will win:
Last year, Slumdog Millionaire came out of nowhere to become one of the most beloved stories of 2008. Critics and audiences both loved it and this overall admiration should lead it to some Oscar gold.

Who should win:
 Milk is better than the competitors in this categories by far. Sean Penn is transcendent, Gus Van Sant finds a perfect medium for his directing, the supporting cast featuring James Franco and Emile Hirsch are magnificent and Dustin Lance Black wrote one of the year's best screenplays. Hopefully, the Oscar's will find some love for this extraordinary film.

Who should have been nominated:
So if you look at my list so far, it is pretty clear that I wish that The Dark Knight and WALL-E should have been nominated. I think that the fact that The Reader was nominated over these two is appalling. But besides those two, I also would have loved to have seen The Wrestler or Doubt awarded. Snow Angels, In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky also would have made fantastic nominees this year. With so many great films this year, it is kind of a shame that none of these were nominated for best film. But hey, there's always next year for the Academy to get it right.

Photo from ATNzone.com


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